articles

"CRIME DETERRENCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE LONDON 2011 RIOTS"

(with B. Bell and S, Machin)

Economic Journal, Vol. 124, Issue 576, pp. 480-506, 2014. Featured in The Guardian and the Financial Times.

Significant riots occurred in London in August 2011. The riots took place in highly localised geographical areas, with crime going up hugely in the affected sub‐wards. The criminal justice response was to make sentencing for rioters much more severe. We show a significant drop in riot crimes across London in the six months after the riots, consistent with a deterrence effect from the tougher sentencing. More evidence of general deterrence comes from the observation that crime also fell in the post‐riot aftermath in areas where rioting did not take place.

"CRIME AND IMMIGRATION: NEW EVIDENCE FROM ENGLAND AND WALES"

(with S. Machin)

IZA Journal of Migration 2013, 2:19.

We study a high profile public policy question on immigration, namely the link between crime and immigration, presenting new evidence from England and Wales in the 2000s. For studying immigration impacts, this period is of considerable interest as the composition of migration altered dramatically with the accession of Eastern European countries (the A8) to the European Union in 2004. As we show, this has important implications for ensuring a causal impact of immigration can be identified. When we are able to implement a credible research design with statistical power, we find no evidence of an average causal impact of immigration on criminal behavior, nor do we when we consider A8 and non-A8 immigration separately. We also study London by itself as the immigration changes in the capital city were very dramatic. Again, we find no causal impact of immigration on crime from our spatial econometric analysis and also present evidence from unique data on arrests of natives and immigrants which shows no immigrant differences in the likelihood of being arrested.

     "the casual effect of compulsory voting laws on turnout:    does skill matter?"

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 92, August 2013, pp. 79-93

A very important, yet unsettled, question is whether mandatory voting affects political participation. This paper exploits a natural experiment to assess the causal impact of compulsory voting on turnout and, more importantly, to test whether the impact is different across skill groups. I find that compulsory voting increases voter turnout by 18 percentage points (28%) and the increase is twice as much in the unskilled citizens than that in the skilled citizens. This study is the first to show, with rigorous empirical evidence, that compulsory voting laws are effective in reducing the skill/socioeconomic gap in political participation. Furthermore, by shaping the electorate, these laws have relevant consequences in terms of the economic policies applied.

  "URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN:    PUBLIC POLICY PRIORITIES"

Latin American Economic Review, 2015, 24:13

Latin America and the Caribbean is the most urbanized region in the developing world. Its urbanization rate of almost 80 % is comparable to that of high-income countries. However, cities in the region are struggling to provide the infrastructure needed for their millions of residents to enjoy a decent quality of life. This paper focuses on analyzing three aspects of this challenge. First, it identifies the main problems in housing and transport infrastructure in the region. Second, it examines the effect of past interventions to improve the living standards of the urban poor. And third, it analyzes the relationship between housing supply and transport networks, two connected topics that shape the region’s spatial urban patterns.

"From Cow Sellers to Beef Exporters: The Impact of Traceability on Cattle Farmers"

in: Chong, A. and M. Yanez-Pagans, eds. "Measuring the Impact of Information Technologies in Latin America". Stanford Universit Press and World Bank Press, Washington DC.

In the last decades the developing world experienced a rapid urbanization of the population. Cities were not prepared to meet the needs of the fast and unplanned growing population and in many cities slums emerged. There have been various types of interventions to deal with the slums problem worldwide: from relocation of slum dwellers to integral interventions, consisting of both infrastructure works and social services targeted to poor neighborhoods. This paper analyses the methods that have been used in a number of upgrading programs and detects the gaps in the literature. To make exposition clear, the programs are divided according to their main outcomes of interest: housing, neighborhood and individual. For each group of outcomes an extensive review of the literature is presented. Also methodological issues regarding implementation and identification strategies for the effects of the interventions are assessed. Finally, the document details some relevant indicators for evaluating slum upgrading programs and suggests avenues for future research.

"CRIME AND durable goods"

(with S. Galiani and F. Weinschelbaum)

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 173, 2020, pp. 146-163.

We develop a theoretical model to study how changes in the durability of the goods affect prices of stolen goods, the incentives to steal and the equilibrium crime rate. When studying the production of durable goods, we find that the presence of crime affects consumer and producer surplus and thus their behaviour, market equilibrium, and, in turn, the social optimum. Lower durability of goods reduces the incentive to steal those goods, thus reducing crime. When crime is included in the standard framework of durable goods, the socially optimal durability level is lower. When considering different stealing technologies, perfect competition either over-produces durability or produces zero (minimum) durability. The monopolist under-produces durability. The model has a clear policy implication: the durability of goods, and the market structure for those goods, can be an effective instrument to reduce crime. In particular, making the durability of a good contingent upon that good being stolen is likely to increase welfare. We also study the incentives to develop and use this optimal technology.

"Frontiers in the Economics of Crime: Lessons for Latin America and the Caribbean"

Latin American Economic Review, 20,19. 28:19

Crime and violence generate many distortions in the allocation of private and public resources and engender economic and social costs that hinder development. In Latin America and the Caribbean, which is the most violent region on earth, the costs of crime represent at least 3.5% of the regional gross domestic product, twice as much as in developed countries. Despite the magnitude of the security problem, the region is lagging in the production of rigorous research on crime and the application of evidence-based policies to fight and deter crime. This paper uses the crime economics framework to shed light on the main drivers of crime and proposes avenues for future research and action in the region to reduce crime and its social and economic costs.

"The Dark Figure of Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean"

(with V. Anauti)

Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, 2020.

The dark figure of crime is the gap between crimes reported in victimization surveys and crimes registered in administrative police records. This paper quantifies the dark figure of gender-based violent crimes through a systematic comparison between official crime figures and victimization surveys in Latin America and the Caribbean over 2004–2014. We find that the dark figure of gender-based violent crimes is between 92 and 95% in comparison with a dark figure of between 63 and 80% in developed countries. This means that in the region, around 5 out of every 100 crimes are found in administrative police records. The dark figure of gender-based violent crimes is similar to that of extortion and kidnapping, but it is significantly greater than the dark figure of assaults and robberies of vehicles (65 and 52%, respectively). Our results show that the perception of corruption and the low confidence in the police are positively associated with the dark figure of crime through the channel of under-reporting and that the dark figure of gender-based violent crimes is greater in rural areas. These findings provide evidence of a potential bias in administrative police data and the need for policies aimed at reducing under-reporting, in particular for gender-based violent crimes.

"Public Transport from a Gender Perspective: Insecurity and Victimization in Latin America. The case of Lima and Asuncion Metropolitan Areas"

Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, 2020.

Lack of security is the main concern of citizens in the region. Crime and violence distort the allocation of resources by governments and businesses and alter citizens’ routines. This is particularly the case for women. This paper measures women’s perceptions of insecurity and victimization on public transport in the Asuncion (Paraguay) and Lima (Peru) metropolitan areas and analyzes their influence on mobility patterns. An innovative methodology, which considers both users and nonusers of public transport in a representative sample from those metropolitan areas, is used. The paper concludes that both women’s perceptions and experiences of insecurity when using public transport, especially in the Lima metropolitan area, are among the worst in Latin America. This is associated with lower public transportation use; therefore, it limits women’s transport options, directly affecting their mobility and causing economic and time loss. About 30% of women in Lima and 6% of women in Asuncion area reported being victims of crime on public transport systems, while 79% in Lima and 24% in Asuncion have witnessed episodes of violence against women on public transport in the past 12 months. More than one third of women have suffered sexual offenses on public transport at some point in their lives. More than 80% of women do not report these crimes. Policies to enhance women’s security on public transport are analyzed as they are key to promoting gender equality.